2020 Prediction Round Up

The easiest prediction to make is one not bounded by time. “The DOW will rise” is a very different prediction from “The DOW will rise tomorrow.” 

There is also a benefit to being a perfect inverse - predictor. Perhaps not to the individual making the predictions but to those watching, knowing to always Zag when they Zig can be a great strategy. The best example we’ve recently found is Scott Galloway and the returns of his inverse portfolio.


So with great excitement, and some trepidation, we have gone through our 2020 predictions and see how we land. Does dysrupt have a crystal ball or will someone on Twitter make an inverse ETF of our predictions. 


Correct


Facebook Makes More Money During the Boycott 

Our total ad revenue for Q3 was $21.2 billion, which is a 22% year-over-year increase.  
Mark Zuckerberg, Q3 2020


The Cyber Quarter

Cyber Monday 2020 is expected to break more records and keep its top spot as the busiest online shopping day, with shoppers expected to spend as much as $12.7 billion or 35% more than in 2019, Adobe said.
LINK

Too Soon To Tell


Wish IPO

Too soon to tell where this IPO is heading but our analysis places us in the bullish category if the current valuation is $14 Billion. 100 MM MAU and easy expansion options with their ProductBoost ad-tech make this a *buy. 


The GIPHY Acquisition 

After the acquisition of GIPHY, we put out 5 predictions with a 2 year timetable after Mark completed his Infinity Gauntlet of Social. At the time of this writing all 5 are too soon to tell, but the launch of anyone being able to make their stickers searchable is a tantalizing move in the right direction for several of our predictions to come to fruition.


Reels is a Success

We've launched a number of new features. The results are encouraging. There's a lot more work to do here as well and I don't have any specific numbers to share here, Dave. I assume you don't have any specific numbers that you would share either.
Mark Zuckerberg Q3 2020 Earnings

What We Got Wrong

It’s only fair to mention one prediction that did not pan out. This wasn’t published but at one point during the initial stock market drop, a cofounder mentioned that for a specific stock “huh, that’s odd. Their market cap is less than their real estate holdings.” 

And sadly we did not immediately log into E*Trade and buy into what was a 35x growth in their stock price. 

Luckily, we are not an investment firm but a marketing firm. So our miss was in a different industry but a reminder of an important lesson that was our first article - there is a cost of not taking a risk.

Worth a Revisit

The Effect Gallery

We wrote about this in February 2020 that brands should begin exploring this exciting feature of Instagram. It’s great to hear about it’s growth in the latest earnings and that even Mark is impressed!

I also want to say I've been impressed by the AR effect that have been built by more than 400,000 creators on our AR platform.
Mark Zuckerberg, Q3 2020 Earnings Call


The A-Pixel-Lypse

Privacy will be front and center to social advertising in 2021. IDFA deprecation, the upcoming battle between the FTC and Facebook, and even that Facebook is part of a supreme court case right now around privacy!


GIPHY Engine Optimization

We pitched this exact idea in November 2019 to two separate brands and are still bullish on the concept. (Nice work eTORO!) If you are running social ads, develop a robust GIPHY strategy to harvest earned media impressions across all of social.


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Photo by Mark Boss on Unsplash


Disclosure:  I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. We wrote this article under our own accord, and it only expresses our own opinions. Dysrupt LLC is not receiving compensation for it. We have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Do not take this article as investment advice. All investments are risky.


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