Anti-Innovation: The Antitrust of 2020
We're going to skip discussing the blow-by-blow of the hearing itself. The long and short is that it was an exercise in grandstanding, and there was clearly a "guilty" verdict already applied to every company in the room. Though it was fascinating to hear the circular logic of "you are a monopoly, therefore doing X is illegal, and because you did X you are a monopoly".
That said...
The basis for the hearing is incredibly important as the industry, and the world, advances into this new age of business and technology. In the simplest terms, the intent of antitrust legislation is to promote the optimal consumer experience. Historically, we have believed the best way to do this is through competition as it organically incentivizes companies to continually fight and innovate for consumer dollars/attention. And that's a key aspect of all this... innovation.
In 2020, it's very difficult to hold these companies up to traditional antitrust and monopolistic definitions. Being big or being aggressive competitively does not make a company a monopoly. Especially when it's because of those exact traits that consumers have benefited tremendously over the past 20 years.
Zuck put it well in his defense of big tech:
"We’re here to talk about online platforms, but I think the true nature of competition is much broader. When Google bought YouTube, they could compete against the dominant player in video, which was the cable industry. When Amazon bought Whole Foods, they could compete against Kroger’s and Walmart. When Facebook bought WhatsApp, we could compete against telcos who used to charge 25 cents a text message, but not anymore. Now people can watch video, get groceries delivered, and send private messages for free. That’s competition. New companies are created all the time, all over the world. And history shows that if we don’t keep innovating, someone will replace every company here today."
So then how do we update and enforce antitrust laws for 2020? (For a deeper dive on this topic we recommend Stratechery’s write up here.) We believe that when looking at these companies the conversation around innovation is paramount. Is Google/Facebook/Apple/Amazon actively innovating and providing incremental value to the consumer?
When you start looking at the track record and recent business activity, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have a common thread. These 3 continue to fight tooth and nail for market position, bring new innovations to market, acquire companies to empower their suite of products/solutions, and provide a consumer experience that is better in 2020 than it was in any year previously.
Interestingly, the only company that has been lagging in the past decade is the company that every other write-up said was just there "for show" and was asked the fewest questions during a 6-hour hearing - Apple.
For those that don't know, Apple was already in front of the Supreme Court in 2018 to defend itself in Apple Inc. v. Pepper against the accusation that the app store is monopolistic. In a 5 -4 decision, the Supreme court affirmed the decision that consumers, “may sue Apple for allegedly monopolizing the retail market for the sale of iPhone apps.”
To interpret some legalese, we’re not saying they’re a monopoly but were saying they’re wearing a top hat, have a cane, and one of the game pieces is a tiny car.
Let's review a few highlights of Apple's business today and double-back on why the App Store issue is actually a problem:
As of Q2 2020, Apple has $193B in cash on hand. That's nearly double the cash of Facebook and Amazon combined. Why isn't Apple investing in itself or acquiring companies? There is a strong argument for Apple to be the acquirer of TikTok over Microsoft.
With one prompt, Apple crippled IDFA and an $80B industry due to the dominant position it has on mobile devices. Yes this is being done under the guise of consumer data privacy, but it just so happens to also put Apple into a premium spot around data while launching a large broadside into Facebook and Google.
Apple has been criticized for years now that it is no longer an innovative company, where flagship and market leading products like the iPhone are now essentially following the R&D and innovation of Android competitors.
Apple recently announced that it would be ending it's 15-year partnership with Intel and will now be making its own computer chips. How this will impact the end consumer is to be determined. However, less competition tends to stifle progress.
And yes... Apple has an essential monopoly on the app store where they force rules on 3rd party companies that their own apps aren't held to. This was a key line of questioning during the hearing where Apple has the rights to copy any other app in the store but no 3rd party has the right to copy an Apple app.
While Google, Amazon, and Facebook have been innovating and constantly competing for market share in new categories, Apple has instead been collecting a dragon's hoard of cash while performing the tech equivalent of a deadly sin: complacency.
Stratechery put it best back in 2018:
"Apple has every right to the outsized profits it makes on the iPhone. Consumers could buy cheaper Android devices but they don’t because they value Apple’s hardware, or iOS, or the integration between the two... To put it another way, Apple profits handsomely from having a monopoly on iOS: if you want the Apple software experience, you have no choice but to buy Apple hardware. That is perfectly legitimate. The company, though, is leveraging that monopoly into an adjacent market — the digital content market — and rent-seeking. Apple does nothing to increase the value of Netflix shows or Spotify music or Amazon books or any number of digital services from any number of app providers; they simply skim off 30% because they can."
We applaud innovation and risk-taking because the product is generally a net positive for the consumer and for society as a whole. And opposed to what was being implied during the hearing, the aggressive push by Big Tech into new verticals or acquisitions of companies are incredibly huge risks and by no means absolute.
Look at how Tumblr was acquired for $1.1B and sold for $3MM only 6 years later.
While Google/Amazon/Facebook are fighting and capturing new markets, Apple is collecting rent. And when you combine complacency with a nearly $2T market cap, you start looking less like the passionate, risk-taking, tech icon in a black turtleneck and more like Smaug the Dragon sitting on a pile of gold while collecting a tax for just existing.
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Thanks to Pedro Santos for sharing their work on Unsplash!